Cohorts
Alpina Bio AG. Subscription economics in USD, the currency the product sells in. Every figure comes from the cohort engine that also feeds the forecast.
Active subscribers
MRR and ARR
CAC
LTV
LTV to CAC
Retention curve, actual against plan
Share of a cohort still subscribed at each age in months. Observed retention solid navy, the board budget in sand. The latest forecast follows the observed curve and appears dashed when a promoted scenario bends it. The curve is a first class model parameter.
New and returning revenue
| Month | New subscribers | New revenue | Returning revenue | One time orders | Total, USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 389 | USD 45,807.86 | USD 63,427.22 | USD 5,093.96 | USD 114,329.04 |
| Feb 2026 | 436 | USD 51,342.49 | USD 81,027.09 | USD 5,709.42 | USD 138,079.00 |
| Mar 2026 | 476 | USD 56,052.81 | USD 99,966.65 | USD 6,233.22 | USD 162,252.68 |
| Apr 2026 | 514 | USD 60,527.61 | USD 119,798.97 | USD 6,730.83 | USD 187,057.41 |
| May 2026 | 563 | USD 66,297.75 | USD 140,576.55 | USD 7,372.48 | USD 214,246.79 |
| Jun 2026 | 594 | USD 69,948.25 | USD 163,179.19 | USD 7,778.43 | USD 240,905.87 |
Returning revenue carries the business. New intake replaces churn and the balance between the two sets the MRR build.
Retention triangle
| Cohort | Intake | M0 | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 140 | 140 | 87 | 60 | 50 | 46 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 35 |
| Aug 2025 | 143 | 143 | 89 | 61 | 51 | 47 | 44 | 43 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | |
| Sep 2025 | 155 | 155 | 96 | 67 | 56 | 51 | 48 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 42 | ||
| Oct 2025 | 169 | 169 | 105 | 73 | 61 | 56 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 47 | |||
| Nov 2025 | 277 | 277 | 172 | 119 | 100 | 91 | 86 | 83 | 80 | ||||
| Dec 2025 | 342 | 342 | 212 | 147 | 123 | 113 | 106 | 103 | |||||
| Jan 2026 | 389 | 389 | 241 | 167 | 140 | 128 | 121 | ||||||
| Feb 2026 | 436 | 436 | 270 | 187 | 157 | 144 | |||||||
| Mar 2026 | 476 | 476 | 295 | 205 | 171 | ||||||||
| Apr 2026 | 514 | 514 | 319 | 221 | |||||||||
| May 2026 | 563 | 563 | 349 | ||||||||||
| Jun 2026 | 594 | 594 |
Active subscribers by cohort and age in months, observed closes only. Darker cells hold more of their intake.
Referrals
A second cohort engine. Referral partners are acquired, churn annually and refer customers whose subscriptions pay a recurring commission. The commissions land in the Go to market lines of the forecast.